Future Geography of Travel and Tourism

Author: Aman Ahmed

Contents #

  1. Introduction
  2. Determinants
  3. Transportation
  4. Climate and Environment
  5. Technological Developments
  6. Global Politics
  7. Tourist Flow
  8. Conclusion

Introduction #

The purpose of this report is to paint, in the minds of readers, an image of the future of travel and tourism, whether significantly different, or unchanged from the current situation, based on current trends, potential future events, developments, and various events that can potentially change the geographic aspects of tourism. Moreover, future is being used here in a very broad sense - anywhere between 3 to 30 years from now.

Determinants #

These are things that can have an effect on the outcome of something, in this case, the future geography of travel and tourism. They may be:

These are all factors that can bring about major changes to who travels where, how.

Transportation #

The transportation industry has come a long way from its humble beginnings. We are at a stage in the information age that gives us conveniences like subsonic flight and magnetic trains.

Current developments have shown us signs of what’s to come – electric drives, and commercial space flights are already a thing, with potential for mass developments with in touching distance.

Hyperloop #

Hyperloop is a concept technology where in an aerodynamic car moves at subsonic speeds through a low-friction tube. It would be traveling at speeds that would otherwise be considered supersonic at sea level, but are subsonic only because the medium is a vacuum tube. Deployed en-masse, these would replace the current high speed railways between major metropolitan cities of the world. The first of these is set to be deployed alongside the Trans-Siberian railway network within the next decades.

Supersonic Commercial Flight #

The Concorde and the Tupolev once allowed high class passengers to fly within hours to distances that normally took days to fly. While the costs of breaking the sound barrier ultimate proved too much, present day developments in aeronautical physics has presented us with designs that can do it at sustainable costs, with much lower noise levels.

These two developments together can change the way people feel about long-haul travel, and may well open up new markets for tourism, especially long-haul, short duration travel.

Space Tourism #

While this started a while ago, the biggest obstacle in its development - actually landing a reusable shuttle consistently, has been recently cleared. At current pace of development, companies like Space X may start operating dedicated tourist flights to space within the next decade or two. This would be a very high-end market, and therefore, is not expected to have any negative impacts on existing tourist destination regions.

Hybrid and Electrical Drives #

It is inevitable that, as we continue to use the world’s fuel reserves, we’ll find ourselves with increasingly costly travel tickets. To get around this fact, companies have been developing hybrid and electrical drive vehicles. In the years that follow, as with the past few years, we are bound to see the world slowly transition to these eco-friendly means of transport.

In the early stages, countries that deploy these in their public transport sectors will find themselves at an advantage over those that are slow to pick up. As such, the current trend of slowing growth in tourist arrivals in Europe may be slightly offset by these, at least in the beginning.

Climate and Environment #

Climate conditions, and environmental factors have always played a huge part in tourism. Whether it’s tourists looking for something different from the climate they are used to, or those who are obsessed with sand or snow, tourists and travelers in general always keep an eye out for the climate in their destination.

Sustainability #

Sustainable tourism has been a major goal of the industry in the past two decades. Financially, and environmentally, it is in the interests of the stakeholders of the industry to push for sustainable development.

In the long run, sustainably developed destinations can be expected to become the norm, with the pace of these developments playing a major part in setting the trends and flows of tourists.

Natural phenomena #

While natural phenomena can’t really be predicted, they will play a major role in shaping the tourism markets of the future. In this sense, regions more prone to natural disasters are likely to decrease in popularity among tourists, as safety becomes a concern for careful travelers.

Additionally, it must be noted that major events like global warming and coral bleaching will have an effect on the geography of tourism. In the former case, low-lying coastal regions are likely to experience a boom in tourist arrivals before rising sea levels really strikes. In the latter case, as seen recently in the Great Barrier Reef, coral bleaching can be a double edged sword, attracting curious tourists, while putting off more careful ones.

Last Chance Tourism #

As touched up on earlier, regions in the brink of disappearing will see a boom in tourist arrivals as more and more people seek to experience these destinations before they disappear for good.

Technological Developments #

Technological developments, as they are integrated into tourism, will change everything in regards to how we travel and where. Currently, there are several already-available technologies that, when integrated into the industry, will have drastic effects on our methods of:

Virtual Reality #

Virtual Reality is an immersive experience wherein the user is surrounded by three dimensional imagery and ambient sounds to give the impression of being in a different place. With VR headsets common, and affordable, the industry is likely to take advantage of these in their marketing methods, allowing potential travelers to experience their destination beforehand. The travelers’ choice, decision making and research can all be accurately done in VR.

In a geographic perspective, this may have an effect on the tourist destination regions, as more tech-savvy tourists will take advantage of VR in deciding where they would be travelling. Regions slow to embrace them may find themselves losing potential tourists.

Augmented Reality #

While the devices appear similar, Augmented Reality is different experience all together. Here the user would actually be aware of his actual surroundings while the tiny supercomputer on his head alters what he sees.

In the case of Microsoft’s Hololens, light is directly projected into the user’s eyes, showing them objects in stunning clarity. Imagine visiting a museum with AR headsets that show a virtual guide who tells you about exhibit you are viewing. That’s the potential of AR, and it can drastically change how we see attractions.

Machine Learning and Artificial Intelligence #

In the age of Cortana and Siri, it can be hard to find smartphone user who hasn’t had at least some sort of experience with Machine Learning and AI. Machine learning is when a piece of software is programmed to learn from what it is told, and write its own pieces of code to improve it self. This is essentially what movie-makers like to refer to as “becoming self aware”, Terminator style. While these software haven’t gone that far yet, they are more than capable of influencing what we do, and how we do it.

For instance, Cortana tells its users about popular restaurants nearby, what route they should take the airport if they don’t want to miss the flight, or where the next Coldplay concert is. She even tells them where she thinks they should go to for their next holiday. Of course, these are all based on what the software learns from users, and can often be very informed.

Whether it be AI or VR, technology can significantly influence the travelling decisions of tourists, and this is expected to only become a more prominent factor as they continue to become more mainstream over the next few years.

Global Politics #

Global politics has historically played a major role in shaping the trends of tourism. Through boycotts, and sanctions, major powers have exercised their influence over who gets to do what in the global arena, and this includes travelling. Moreover, careless politicking has often discouraged travelers from travelling to, or even out of countries.

Wars and Terrorism #

Wars, and anything to do with them can discourage tourists from travelling to a destination. Moreover, potential tourists from countries involved in wars are likely to feel insecure travelling outside their countries’ borders, especially when the destination country doesn’t see eye-to-eye with their own. While exceptionally few wars are being actively fought today, there are conflicts which may yet evolve into regional and multi-regional wars.

Eastern Ukraine #

With the stance being held by Russia and Ukraine, as well as the Eastern Ukrainian separatist factions, mistakes on sides can escalate the conflict (along with the frozen conflicts in the region) into something much, much bigger. With NATO supporting the Ukrainian government, there is always fear of a third world war whenever there’s a move on either side.

Even fear of such a war is enough to keep tourists away, as in the past 4 years, all the countries in the region have seen drops in tourist arrivals. It’s only natural that an actual full-scale war would devastate the tourist prospects of the region.

Libya, Syria and the Middle East #

The Middle-East, in recent years, has been devastated by conflicts and insurgency. Syria has been the source of the biggest non-tourism movement in recent years, while Libya is slowly turning into a second Syria. This is another conflict where more than one country that doesn’t see eye-to-eye are involved.

The result is that should either of these two conflicts evolve into a greater-scale war, the other conflict automatically gets sucked into it, due to the countries involved. Global tourism would take a beating as a result.

Implications #

The implications of a full-scale war in these fronts would have multiple implications to the tourism industry:

It must be noted that some of the most visited nations in the world are part of NATO, and as such, a full-scale war would very much change the geographic element of tourism drastically.

Multi-polarity #

Multi-polar means to have many extremities. In world politics, it is for multiple major powers to exist, keeping each other in check. This position is championed by the Shanghai Corporation Organization, headed by China, which seeks to replace the western countries’ economic influence in Asia.

In the long run, this means that that there will be friction between these blocks, which may well result in obstacles to the flow of tourists between regions in various ‘poles’.

Other political factors #

Not everything has to be about war. In tourism, careless politicking often results in a damaged public image, which in turn results in loss of potential tourists. A fine example is the ongoing burkini mishap in France. While for the French authorities, the move was a simple matter of public security, for those on the receiving end of the bans, it’s oppression. It’s, no doubt, bound to keep more than one potential beach-goer away from French beaches.

While on this topic, Britain’s departure from the European Union will be finalized in the coming years. This may have a huge impact on tourist activity in the kingdom. Initially, it can be expected that the Sterling Pound will remain weak for a while before strengthening. This will see tourist arrivals in the country surge, while a subsequently stronger Sterling Pound may be accompanied by increases in tourists originating from the islands.

For France, for instance, being a soft target for terrorists means that this may not be the only thing acting against their dominance in the global stage. With the likes of Spain and USA just behind them, France may concede it spot at the top of tourist arrival lists to one of those two in a few years.

Tourist Flow #

The aforementioned determinants may well change the flow of tourists in the decades to come. With that in mind, the following potential changes come to mind.

Tourist Generating Regions #

Tourist Destination Regions #

Conclusion #

In a nutshell, the determinants of tourist activity may drastically change over the next few decades. This would result in major changes in the geographic element of tourism, especially in the flow of tourists, as prime tourist suppliers and destinations are affected.

 
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